GF Wiki
This page explains the metrics Generation Football uses alongside traditional results: Expected Points (xPts) and Elo ratings.
Expected Points (xPts) · Elo ratings
Expected Points (xPts)
Expected Points estimate how many points a team deserved from a match based on chance quality rather than the final score. A team that creates better chances can finish with a high xPts total even if the scoreboard does not go their way — and the reverse is also true.
For each match we take the team’s expected goals (xG) and the opponent’s expected goals against them (xGA). We then use a Poisson probability model to estimate how likely every realistic scoreline is, treating each side’s goals as independent and considering totals from 0 to 6 goals.
Those scoreline probabilities add up to the chances of a win, a draw, or a loss. Expected Points are then: (win probability × 3) + (draw probability × 1).
Season and last-five-match xPts figures are the sum of those match values. League tables are still ranked by real points; xPts is there to show which teams are over- or under-performing relative to the chances they created and conceded.
Elo ratings
Elo is a running strength rating for teams. We keep club and national team ratings separate, so a club’s rating is not mixed with its country’s, and matches between clubs and national teams are skipped.
Every team starts at 1500. Ratings use results from the last five seasons. Before a match we calculate how likely each side is to take points, using the classic Elo formula. Home teams get a +100 rating boost, except on designated neutral fixtures (World Cup, Euros and similar tournaments, plus club finals), where that advantage is 0.
After the match, the result is scored as 1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw, and 0 for a loss. Penalty shootouts use the score after extra time, so they count as draws. A margin factor then scales the update: 1 for a draw or one-goal win, 1.5 for a two-goal win, and (11 + goal difference) / 8 for larger margins. The rating change is K × margin factor × (actual result − expected result).
K depends on how important the match is: 20 for friendlies, 30 for domestic league and cup games, 40 for qualifiers and major club competitions, 50 for major national-team tournaments, and 60 for the World Cup final.
On the site, club Elo is the tie-breaker on the Top Teams list after recent form. Team pages show the last month of Elo movement, and match pages show how much each side gained or lost from that fixture.