GF Wiki

This page explains the metrics Generation Football uses alongside traditional results: Expected Points (xPts), Elo ratings, the icons in player tables, and the abbreviations used in those tables.

Expected Points (xPts) · Elo ratings · Player table icons · Abbreviations

Expected Points (xPts)

Expected Points estimate how many points a team deserved from a match based on chance quality rather than the final score. A team that creates better chances can finish with a high xPts total even if the scoreboard does not go their way — and the reverse is also true.

For each match we take the team’s expected goals (xG) and the opponent’s expected goals against them (xGA). We then use a Poisson probability model to estimate how likely every realistic scoreline is, treating each side’s goals as independent and considering totals from 0 to 6 goals.

Those scoreline probabilities add up to the chances of a win, a draw, or a loss. Expected Points are then: (win probability × 3) + (draw probability × 1).

Season and last-five-match xPts figures are the sum of those match values. League tables are still ranked by real points; xPts is there to show which teams are over- or under-performing relative to the chances they created and conceded.

Elo ratings

Elo is a running strength rating for teams. We keep club and national team ratings separate, so a club’s rating is not mixed with its country’s, and matches between clubs and national teams are skipped.

Every team starts at 1500. Ratings use results from the last five seasons. Before a match we calculate how likely each side is to take points, using the classic Elo formula. Home teams get a +100 rating boost, except on designated neutral fixtures (World Cup, Euros and similar tournaments, plus club finals), where that advantage is 0.

After the match, the result is scored as 1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw, and 0 for a loss. Penalty shootouts use the score after extra time, so they count as draws. A margin factor then scales the update: 1 for a draw or one-goal win, 1.5 for a two-goal win, and (11 + goal difference) / 8 for larger margins. The rating change is K × margin factor × (actual result − expected result).

K depends on how important the match is: 20 for friendlies, 30 for domestic league and cup games, 40 for qualifiers and major club competitions, 50 for major national-team tournaments, and 60 for the World Cup final.

On the site, club Elo is the tie-breaker on the Top Teams list after recent form. Team pages show the last month of Elo movement, and match pages show how much each side gained or lost from that fixture.

Player table icons

The Top Players table uses icons in the column headers. The same icons appear beside the matching statistic on a player’s page. Appearances, goals, assists, goals plus assists, and rating are on by default. The rest show when that statistic is switched on in the filters.

Appearances — matches the player has played in.
Goals — goals scored.
Assists — goals the player directly set up.
Goals + Assists — goals and assists added together.
Average rating — the player’s average match rating.
Minutes — minutes played.
Penalties scored — penalties the player converted.
Penalties missed — penalties the player failed to score. The red line marks a miss.
Shots on target — shots that were on goal.
Yellow cards.
Red cards.

Abbreviations

Short labels in table headers. Hovering a player-table header still shows the full name.

Players

NPG — non-penalty goals. Goals from open play, excluding penalties.
GA/90 — goals plus assists per 90 minutes. Narrow screens show this as GA90.
No. — shirt number.
Sub Apps — substitute appearances.
Pens Won — penalties won.
Pens Com. — penalties committed.
Pens Saved — penalties saved by a goalkeeper.
Drib. Succ — successful dribbles.
Drib. Past — times an opponent dribbled past the player.
Acc. Passes — accurate passes.
Pass % — pass accuracy.
Interc. — interceptions.
GC — goals conceded.

League and team tables

P — played.
W — wins.
D — draws.
L — losses.
GD — goal difference.
Pts — points.
Ag — against. Team tables pair this with For, for goals, expected goals, and the other split stats.
Rtg — rating, on match lineups.

Expected stats

xG — expected goals. The goals a team or player would be expected to score from the quality of the chances they had.
xGA — expected goals against. The same measure for chances conceded.
xGOT — expected goals on target. Expected goals from shots that were on target.
xA — expected assists.
xPts — expected points. How many points a team deserved from chance quality. See Expected Points.